OPTIMAL Mating Analysis: Tonalist’s Shape Wins Hollywood Wildcat Stakes

Tonalist's Shape

Tonalist's Shape

Tonalist’s Shape

Tonalist’s Shape returned back to her winning ways with a dominating 3 3/4-length win in the $75,000 Hollywood Wildcat Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, FL. The win proved that she could successfully navigate two turns. Her other victories were one-turn races from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile.

The Kentucky-bred filly, who is owned by Slam Dunk Racing, Legacy Ranch Inc. and Doug Branham, won her first five starts including the Grade 3 Forward Gal and Grade 2 Davona Dale. She now has six victories in seven starts and has bankrolled $357,425 along the way.

The win also bolsters the credentials of Tonalist’s Shape and fits well into trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.’s schedule for making the delayed September 4th Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

Bred by Sabana Farm, the daughter of 2014 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist is the first foal out of the stakes-winning Harlan’s Holiday mare Hitechnoweenie. Tonalist’s Shape was also the first black-type winner for her sire. She is the eighth graded/group winner out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare.

OPTIMAL Mating Analysis

Tonalist’s Shape was listed as an OPTIMAL Mating Sales Selection at the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Spring 2yo Sale. Both times she failed to attain her reserve.

Horses bred on OPTIMAL Matings have proven to possess more potential to become superior racehorses. In fact, most will break their maiden in the first two starts. Combined with a good physical, good vetting and a price that falls within a budget, OPTIMAL Matings help to focus on buying or breeding better racehorses.

OPTIMAL Mating Factors for Tonalist’s Shape

  •  Outcross Percentage = 79% (OPTIMAL >= 70%)
  •  Linebreeding Balance = 5 (OPTIMAL <= 10)
  •  2nd Generation Linebreeding Balance = 9 (OPTIMAL <= 17)
  •  Grand sire/Grand dam Pair Percentage = 1% (OPTIMAL <= 17%)
  •  Gender-balanced Linebreeding Difference = 0 (OPTIMAL <= 2)
  •  Number of Dominant Runner Female Families = 7 (OPTIMAL >= 4)
  •  Number of Dominant Sire Female Families = 3 (OPTIMAL >= 1)

NOTE: All 7 factors are met.

Key Linebreedings

  •  6×5 Honest Pleasure – through daughters Narrate and Dowager
  •  6,5×6,6 Northern Dancer – through sons Nijinsky II, Topsider, Storm Bird and Vice Regent – similar to G1W Monomoy Girl (Tapizar)
  •  6×6,6 Raise A Native – gender-balanced through sons Mr. Prospector & Exclusive Native and daughter Suspicious Native
  •  6×6 Secretariat – through daughters Weekend Surprise and Terlingua – similar to G1W Monomoy Girl (Tapizar)

Whether you are new to the game, experiencing more losses than wins or just looking for a new approach, I am confident that I can help you breed or buy a better racehorse. To find out more about OPTIMAL Matings and how they can help your program, please subscribe to my Blog/News page HERE to receive future information on complimentary mating recommendations, sales short lists, stakes winner pedigree analysis, news on personal client success and any other random thoughts or ideas that I may have. Also, receive a complimentary copy of my report “Blind Luck or Designed Luck? – How A Kentucky Derby Winner Was Bred” sent directly to your inbox.

For inquiries or more information about Shepherd Equine Advisers, please contact Clark Shepherd at 859-321-6618, or by email at clark@bloodstock-agent-ky.com.

I would love to hear any comments or questions that you may have. Please submit them below. Maybe we can address them in a future post!

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