Client Success: Homebred Tonalist Filly Goes Clear at the Wire



ONE LAST TRIAL (f, 3, Tonalist–Thisdanseistaken, by Gators N Bears)

ONE LAST TRIAL (f, 3, Tonalist–Thisdanseistaken {SP, $258,910}, by Gators N Bears) rated close up while towards the inside, angled out and was under pressure heading towards the lane. She straightened away to be about four wide and closed in steadily under left handed rousing by jockey Julian Pimental. The chestnut Tonalist filly overtook the embattled leaders inside the sixteenth pole and went clear at the wire to earn her second win of 2020 in four starts.

The winner has a 2yo half-brother named Kennebec (Lookin At Lucky) and an unnamed yearling half-brother by Maclean’s Music. One Last Trial’s dam was barren last year after being bred to Runhappy but was bred back to the Claiborne stallion again this year.

Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $60,349. O/B-The Elkstone Group, LLC (Stuart Grant) (MD); T-Kelly Rubley.

Clark Shepherd (Shepherd Equine Advisers), mating advisor for Stuart Grant (The Elkstone Group LLC), has designed the matings for Mr. Grant for several years. Most notable horses produced include G1W Mor Spirit, G2W Lady Fog Horn and G3W Edge of Reality along with several state-bred champions.

OPTIMAL Mating Analysis

Horses bred on OPTIMAL Matings have proven to possess more potential to become superior racehorses. In fact, most will break their maiden in the first two starts. Combined with a good physical, good vetting and a price that falls within a budget, OPTIMAL Matings help to focus on buying or breeding better racehorses.


OPTIMAL Mating Factors for One Last Trial

  • Outcross Percentage = 73% (OPTIMAL >= 70%)
  • Linebreeding Balance = 2 (OPTIMAL <= 10)
  • 2nd Generation Linebreeding Balance = 10 (OPTIMAL <= 17)
  • Grand sire/Grand dam Pair Percentage = 10% (OPTIMAL <= 17%)
  • Gender-balanced Linebreeding Difference = 2 (OPTIMAL <= 2)
  • Number of Dominant Runner Female Families = 5 (OPTIMAL >= 4)
  • Number of Dominant Sire Female Families = 4 (OPTIMAL >= 1)

NOTE: All 7 factors are met.

Key Linebreedings

  • 5×5 Seattle Slew – gender-balanced through son A. P. Indy and daughter Hail Atlantis
  • 5,6×5 Mr. Prospector – gender-balanced through daughter Preach and sons Fappiano & Crafty Prospector
    • Similar to G1W Tiz the Law (Constitution) & SW Beautiful Shot (Trappe Shot)
  • 6,5×6,6 Northern Dancer – gender-balanced through sons Nijinsky II, Topsider, Storm Bird and daughter Cool Mood
    • Similar to G1W Monomoy Girl (Tapizar), G2W Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist) & SW Tap It All (Tapizar)
  • 6×6 In Reality – through daughters Moon Glitter & Real Crafty Lady
    • Similar to G1W Tiz the Law (Constitution) & SW Beautiful Shot (Trappe Shot)
  • 5×5,6 Buckpasser – gender-balanced through daughters Toll Booth & Passing Mood and son L’Enjoleur

Whether you are new to the game, experiencing more losses than wins or just looking for a new approach, I am confident that I can help you breed or buy a better racehorse. To find out more about OPTIMAL Matings and how they can help your program, please subscribe to my Blog/News page HERE to receive future information on complimentary mating recommendations, sales short lists, stakes winner pedigree analysis, news on personal client success and any other random thoughts or ideas that I may have. Also, receive a complimentary copy of my report “Blind Luck or Designed Luck? – How A Kentucky Derby Winner Was Bred” sent directly to your inbox.

For inquiries or more information about Shepherd Equine Advisers, please contact Clark Shepherd at 859-321-6618, or by email at

I would love to hear any comments or questions that you may have. Please submit them below. Maybe we can address them in a future post!

I offer my expertise as a bloodstock agent, sales consultant, and pedigree analyst to assist in breeding or purchasing superior thoroughbred racehorses through sound pedigree principles, horsemanship, and consistent implementation of well-designed plans. To find out more about how my services can help your program, please contact me at 859-321-6618, or by email at

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